Ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s second inauguration, a new New York Times/Ipsos poll finds that the United States is deeply divided. Public opinion fractures on how the country feels about a second Trump term and Trump’s cabinet nominees. Key questions on the economy and immigration split the public as well. However, most oppose Trump using his power to prosecute his political opponents, even as most Americans think it is likely he will do so. Partisanship continues to shape these key questions.
Detailed findings:
1. Americans are divided on their feelings about Trump’s second term.
- About half say they are either worried (37%) or pessimistic but not worried (14%) about Trump’s second term, while roughly half also say they are either excited (21%) or optimistic but not excited (26%).
- Likewise, a plurality (41%) believes that Trump’s policies in his new administration will not make much difference for them. Thirty-one percent say these policies will hurt them and 27% say the policies will help them.
- Thirty percent approve of the people Trump has nominated to be a part of his cabinet, while 39% disapprove and 30% say they have not heard enough to say.
- Opinion on whether the Department of Government Efficiency will be effective is unsettled; 47% of Americans think it will be effective, 47% don’t think it will be effective, and 6% aren’t sure.
2. Most feel the economy is unfair but are split on whether Trump will make life more affordable. The public is also divided on whether the U.S. should increase tariffs on Mexico and China, even as most believe Trump will increase tariffs.
- Opinion on whether Trump will make life more affordable for regular Americans is fractured, with 46% thinking he will and 51% thinking he won’t. There are significant partisan differences here.
- A plurality of Americans (45%) feel Trump’s policies will help the national economy, while 39% feel his policies will hurt the economy. Few (13%) feel Trump’s policies will make no difference. There are pronounced differences by partisanship with most Republicans (83%) and few Democrats (14%) feeling Trump will help the national economy.
- Americans are divided on their support for increasing tariffs for countries like China and Mexico, with 46% supporting tariffs and 50% opposing tariffs. Support for tariffs is also divided along party lines. Though, four in five Americans (81%) think it is likely Trump will increase tariffs on imports from China and Mexico.
- However, despite partisan differences on policies, two in three Americans (68%) feel that the economic system in the U.S. unfairly favors the wealthy, with a majority of Democrats (83%) and a bare majority of Republicans (52%) agreeing.
3. Most Americans think immigrants strengthen the U.S. Though, there is widespread support for deporting immigrants who are in the country illegally with a criminal record. Most think it is likely Trump will launch the largest deportation operation in U.S. history.
- A decisive majority of Americans (80%) think it is likely that Trump will launch the largest deportation operation in U.S. history.
- A majority (55%) supports deporting all immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally. Support rises for deporting immigrants who are in the country illegally but who arrived during the recent wave of migration to the southern border (63%) and deporting immigrants who are here illegally and have criminal records (87%). There are wide partisan gaps on all points except for deporting immigrants who are here illegally with criminal records, which has decisive bipartisan support (94% of Republicans and 83% of Democrats support this).
- On legal immigration, Americans are split, with a plurality (43%) saying that the U.S. currently allows the right number of legal immigrants, 30% saying the country allows too many legal immigrants, and 24% saying it should allow more legal immigration. Pluralities of Republicans and Democrats feel that the current amount of legal immigration is the right amount.
- A majority (56%) feel immigrants today strengthen the U.S. because of their hard work and talents over the 41% who say immigrants today are a burden because they take jobs, housing, and health care. There are substantial differences by partisanship.
4. Most Americans distrust the government and oppose Trump’s prosecution of his political opponents. However, most think it is likely Trump will do so.
- Three in five Americans (60%) feel government is almost always wasteful and inefficient, while over one in three (37%) say government often does a better job than people give it credit for.
- Likewise, a majority (72%) say the government is mostly working to benefit itself and the elites over working to benefit the people and the country (25%). Majorities of Republicans (80%) and Democrats (67%) feel the government is mostly working to benefit itself and the elites.
- On the question of presidential power, a majority of Americans say the president has about the right amount of power (56%), while fewer feel the president has too much power (33%) or too little power (9%).
- About three in four Americans (73%) oppose Trump using the government to investigate and prosecute his political opponents. While there are some differences by partisanship, majorities of Republicans (58%) and Democrats (91%) oppose this.
- Even as most oppose Trump using the government to investigate his political opponents, most Americans (69%) also think it is likely he will do so. A majority of Republicans (54%) and Democrats (87%) believe this is likely.
This New York Times/Ipsos poll was conducted January 2 to January 10, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. Invitations were sent to 3,333 panelists, resulting in 2,128 completed interviews.
In quality control, one respondent was removed for skipping all the questions.
The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. Two reminders were sent.
The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region by metropolitan status, household income, language dominance and 2024 presidential vote choice. The demographic benchmarks came from 2024 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS) from the US Census Bureau. Language dominance benchmarks are from the 2023 American Community Survey (ACS). The 2024 presidential vote choice benchmarks came from the federal elections 2024 election results for the U.S. President. The weighting categories were as follows:
- Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18-29, 30-44, 45-59, 60+)
- Race-Ethnicity (White/Non-Hispanic, Black/Non-Hispanic, Other/Non-Hispanic and 2+ Races/Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
- Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West) by Metropolitan Status (Metro, Non-Metro)
- Education (Less than high school, High School graduate or equivalent, Some College, Bachelor, Masters or higher)
- Household Income (under $25K, $25K-$49,999, $50K-$74,999, $75K-$99,999, $100K-$149,999, $150K and over)
- English Language Dominance (English Proficient, Bilingual, Spanish Proficient, Non-Hispanics)
- 2024 Presidential Vote Choice (Trump, Harris, Someone else, Did not vote/not eligible)
The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.50. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.
Reprinted from Ipsos.com
