{"id":5331,"date":"2025-06-20T00:46:05","date_gmt":"2025-06-20T07:46:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/?p=5331"},"modified":"2025-06-20T00:47:04","modified_gmt":"2025-06-20T07:47:04","slug":"americas-economy-could-face-a-war-shock","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/?p=5331","title":{"rendered":"America\u2019s economy could face a war shock"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

As if a global trade war wasn\u2019t enough for businesses and consumers to contend with, it\u2019s looking increasingly like\u00a0the Israel-Iran conflict<\/a>\u00a0could reach the brink of a full-blown war. While the conflict is playing out thousands of miles away from US soil, Americans may not be able to escape the economic impact of it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell\u00a0told reporters Wednesday<\/a>\u00a0after the central bank\u2019s latest monetary policy meeting that officials are monitoring the situation. \u201cWhat\u2019s tended to happen is when there\u2019s turmoil in the Middle East, you may see a spike in energy prices, but it tends to come down,\u201d he said in response to a question from CNN\u2019s Matt Egan.

\u201cThose things don\u2019t generally tend to have lasting effects on inflation, although, of course, in the 1970s they famously did because you had a series of very, very large shocks,\u201d Powell added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among those: The Iranian Revolution, which caused global oil production to fall substantially and then contributed to already-high gas prices as a result of the Arab oil embargo following the Yom Kippur war. Powell seemed assured there isn\u2019t a risk of such a scenario this time around, adding that \u201cthe US economy is far less dependent on foreign oil than it was back in the 1970s.\u201d

Oil prices soar after Israeli attack on Iran<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil prices jumped to just over $78 a barrel following Israel’s unprecedented attack on Iran. It is the biggest same-day gain since March 2022, a month after Russia launched a full-scale invasion in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economists, however, aren\u2019t as convinced that the conflict doesn\u2019t present a major risk to the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, JPMorgan economists said in a recent note to clients, \u201cThe US and global economies are set to absorb multiple shocks this year.\u201d Chief among those is the potential for a Middle East war, they said.

\u2018One of the world\u2019s most important oil chokepoints\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOne of the most direct impacts on US consumers would be if the Strait of Hormuz was closed, leading to a spike in energy costs as the flow of seaborne oil and gas becomes disrupted,\u201d said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING. The US Energy Information Administration recently referred to the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, as \u201cone of the world\u2019s most important oil chokepoints.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last year, the amount of oil that passed through the waterway averaged 20 million barrels per day, it said, which amounts to about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cVery few alternative options exist to move oil out of the strait if it is closed,\u201d the EIA said in an online article<\/a> on Monday. Meanwhile, Iran has repeatedly threatened<\/a> to shut down the strait as a form of retaliation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That could end up proving to be more limited than what the Iranian government has threatened, though, analysts at S&P Global Market Intelligence said in a recent note.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIran\u2019s leadership is unlikely to fully close the Strait of Hormuz for an extended period; as a first recourse, it is more likely that Iran\u2019s naval forces deploy along the Strait and block passage to selected vessels depending on flag and destination.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even though the US is considered energy independent, gas prices<\/a> would still \u201crocket higher,\u201d Knightley.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The tariff shock<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While tariff-related price hikes that economists widely expect to occur haven\u2019t shown up in the all-encompassing inflation reports the US government publishes, most believe it\u2019s only a matter of time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the economy recovered from the pandemic, inflation accelerated across the globe. Then, while that unfolded, the war between Russia and Ukraine took hold, sending gas prices soaring and pushing inflation even higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That could very well play out again if gas prices shoot higher due to the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWith tariff-induced price hikes already set to squeeze household spending power, higher gasoline prices would intensify the strain on consumer pockets, risking a more pronounced slowdown in the economy,\u201d Knightley told CNN.

Reprinted from CNN<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As if a global trade war wasn\u2019t enough for businesses a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":5332,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[1731,4370,1457],"class_list":["post-5331","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-usa","tag-conflict","tag-could","tag-war"],"yoast_head":"\nAmerica\u2019s economy could face a war shock - abovecloud<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/?p=5331\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"America\u2019s economy could face a war shock - abovecloud\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As if a global trade war wasn\u2019t enough for businesses a […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/?p=5331\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"abovecloud\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-06-20T07:46:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-06-20T07:47:04+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-15.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1160\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"653\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u4f5c\u8005\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"TSOC\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb\u65f6\u95f4\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 \u5206\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/\",\"name\":\"abovecloud\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/?p=5331#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-15.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/image-15.png\",\"width\":1160,\"height\":653},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/?p=5331#webpage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/?p=5331\",\"name\":\"America\u2019s economy could face a war shock - 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