{"id":4784,"date":"2024-11-06T17:48:30","date_gmt":"2024-11-07T01:48:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/?p=4784"},"modified":"2024-11-06T17:48:44","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T01:48:44","slug":"us-pollsters-taking-heat-again-for-failing-to-predict-trump-triumph","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/?p=4784","title":{"rendered":"US pollsters taking heat \u2013 again \u2013 for failing to predict Trump triumph"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Polling experts called on to explain surveys that showed Trump and Harris deadlocked in a race deemed too close to call
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US pollsters are under fire for the third presidential election running for failing to foresee\u00a0Donald Trump\u2019s<\/a>\u00a0emphatic ballot box triumph that will propel him\u00a0back to the White House<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Having seriously underestimated Trump\u2019s support in the 2016 and 2020 elections, polling agencies trumpeted a recalibrated methodology for 2024 that was meant to more realistically reflect his standing while restoring their own credibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead, pollsters<\/a> are now being called on to explain a broad range of surveys that showed the two candidates essentially deadlocked<\/a> both nationally and in battleground states in a race that was deemed too close to call.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Compounding the embarrassment, many polling experts in the final days before election day predicted a narrow electoral college victory for Kamala Harris, who was foreseen by some as just about eking a win in a majority of the seven swing states<\/a>: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, Trump has won five of the states at the time of publication and was leading in Nevada and Arizona, which had yet to be called.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Standing out was a poll published at the weekend by the Des Moines Register that purported to show Harris with a three-point lead over Trump in the Republican stronghold state of Iowa \u2013 supposedly fueled by widespread outrage among women voters over the restriction of abortion rights.

The poll, carried out by J Ann Selzer \u2013 an Iowa pollster widely renowned among her peers for reliability \u2013 fed Democratic hopes of a groundswell of support among female voters that could potentially carry over to neighboring Michigan and Wisconsin.

Selzer vouched for its findings even while Trump\u2019s campaign dismissed it as a \u201cfake poll\u201d and \u201ca clear outlier\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI\u2019ve been the outlier queen so many times,\u201d Selzer, whose polling correctly foretold Barack Obama\u2019s triumph in the Iowa caucuses in 2008, told the New York Times<\/a>. \u201cI\u2019m not jumpy.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Actual events proved the poll to be a dud. Iowa was called for Trump early, and with nearly all the votes counted on Wednesday, he led by an emphatic 55.9% to 42.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rick Perlstein<\/a>, an award-winning historian who has written several books chronicling the rise of American conservatism, lamented the role of polling in modern elections in a series of posts on X.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIowa called for Trump. Polling is a very compromised enterprise. It would be great to see people start ignoring it,\u201d he wrote<\/a> on Tuesday evening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a later post<\/a>, he wrote: \u201cOne of the trippy things about the polling enterprise is [the] fraught relationship they have with traditional journalism, complaining of their breathless coverage that does not understand polling methodology, but also soliciting that coverage for business purposes.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The criticism was joined by\u00a0Allan Lichtman<\/a>, a historian at American University who forecast a Harris victory based on a system of 13 \u201ckeys\u201d he had used to correctly predict the outcome of 11 of the past 12 presidential elections.

\u201cUnlike Nate Silver, who will try to squirm out of why he didn\u2019t see the election coming, I admit that I was wrong,\u201d Lichtman\u00a0wrote<\/a>, adding that he would assess his method and the election in a live broadcast on Thursday.

Silver<\/a>, a pollster who founded FiveThirtyEight, made Harris a marginal favourite hours before polls opened, but had written<\/a> two weeks earlier that his \u201cgut\u201d favored Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The pollsters\u2019 discomfiture was also highlighted by online betting companies, who claimed they had more accurately predicted the result than self-proclaimed professionals with decades of experience in the field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Five companies \u2013 Betfair, Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt and Smarkets \u2013 gave Trump a better-than-even chance of winning on the eve of polling day, the New York Times reported. As polls closed on Tuesday, their odds in favour of his winning shot up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polymarket boasted that it had \u201cproved the wisdom of markets over the polls, the media, and the pundits\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cPolymarket consistently and accurately forecasted outcomes well ahead of all three, demonstrating the power of high volume, deeply liquid prediction markets,\u201d the company posted on X<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tarek Mansour, the chief executive of Kalshi, put it more succinctly. \u201cPolls 0, Prediction Markets 1,\u201d he wrote<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reprinted from The Guardian<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Polling experts called on to explain surveys that showe […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":4787,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[4484,4482,1891],"class_list":["post-4784","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sino-american","tag-failing","tag-pollsters","tag-trump"],"yoast_head":"\nUS pollsters taking heat \u2013 again \u2013 for failing to predict Trump triumph - abovecloud<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/?p=4784\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US pollsters taking heat \u2013 again \u2013 for failing to predict Trump triumph - abovecloud\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Polling experts called on to explain surveys that showe […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/?p=4784\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"abovecloud\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-11-07T01:48:30+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-07T01:48:44+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-8.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"928\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"554\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u4f5c\u8005\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"TSOC\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb\u65f6\u95f4\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 \u5206\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/\",\"name\":\"abovecloud\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/?p=4784#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-8.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-8.png\",\"width\":928,\"height\":554},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/?p=4784#webpage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/?p=4784\",\"name\":\"US pollsters taking heat \u2013 again \u2013 for failing to predict Trump triumph - 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