{"id":4580,"date":"2024-09-04T18:41:59","date_gmt":"2024-09-05T01:41:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/?p=4580"},"modified":"2024-09-04T18:42:19","modified_gmt":"2024-09-05T01:42:19","slug":"america-has-the-fewest-jobs-available-since-january-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/abovecloud.xyz\/?p=4580","title":{"rendered":"America has the fewest jobs available since January 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The number of available jobs in the US shrank more than expected in July, an indication that demand for workers continues to wane amid a cooling labor market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Job openings fell in July for the second consecutive month to an estimated 7.67 million, from 7.91 million in June<\/a>, according to new data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s the lowest number of openings since January 2021.

Economists were expecting that the July postings would total 8.1 million, according to FactSet consensus estimates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wednesday\u2019s data is the first in a series of critically important economic metrics released this week about the US labor market, culminating with the Friday jobs report. With a hotly anticipated rate cut just two weeks away, Wall Street and Main Street are intently focused on whether a weakening labor market could mean a jumbo-sized cut from the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The July Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report \u201cconfirms the picture of the labor market that we\u2019ve been seeing for a little while,\u201d Oliver Allen, senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told CNN in an interview Wednesday. \u201cThe labor market was looking very tight in a lot of 2023 and into the start of this year, and now it\u2019s looking much more balanced.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The worry, however, is whether the scales are tipping in the opposite direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s the direction of travel now, which is the more concerning thing,\u201d he said. \u201cAs much as the Fed might not want to see more deterioration, the simple fact is they have already raised rates a very long way, left rates at a high level for quite a while, and monetary policy obviously operates at a lag.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSo, I think some further deterioration is already in the pipeline,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All eyes are on the labor market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Job openings, which serve as a measurement of labor demand, have come down significantly from their record highs when the US economy was roaring back from the pandemic and the need for workers outstripped the immediately available supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the labor market has slowed, it\u2019s come back into balance: There are now nearly 1.1 jobs available for every person looking for one. That ratio, which peaked at 2.03 in March 2022, hasn\u2019t been this slim in more than three years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the easing of job gains is something that has been expected, fears have grown<\/a> recently that the labor market isn\u2019t simply bending under the weight of Federal Reserve inflation-busting interest hikes \u2014 but it\u2019s actually breaking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The monthly jobs report for July showed gains of just 114,000<\/a> \u2014 far below expectations \u2014 and the unemployment rate shot to 4.3% from 4.1%. Separately, annual labor market data revisions<\/a> showed job gains for the year ending March 2024 were less robust than initially thought.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe July jobs report was obviously a big turning point in terms of perceptions of the labor market and the near-term prospects for the economy,\u201d Allen said.

Concurrently, inflation has greatly subsided<\/a>, putting the Federal Reserve just weeks away from what is likely the first interest rate cut<\/a> since the central bank began its inflation-busting tightening cycle more than two years ago, all eyes are on the slew of labor market data being released this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, those looking for some reassurance that the labor market is cooling at a sustainable level didn\u2019t get that clarity from Wednesday\u2019s report, said Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe labor market continues to soften and is about back to pre-pandemic levels; the question is, does the trajectory continue and threaten the expansion, or will it level off?\u201d Frick wrote in commentary issued Friday. \u201cIt may not be the deciding factor for a deeper Fed cut at the end of the month, but it adds to the case.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018Haggard but healthy\u2019 labor market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The JOLTS report, although more backward-looking than most of the data, provides a critical look at the churn within the labor market and whether turnover remains at healthy levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The scaling back in job postings was most pronounced in sectors such as trade (particularly in transportation, warehousing and utilities), state and local government, and healthcare, BLS data shows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In July, hiring activity picked up after having plummeted the month before, with 5.52 million hires versus 5.25 million; and the number of people voluntarily quitting their job held fairly steady at 3.28 million versus 3.21 million in June, according to seasonally adjusted data released Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis latest JOLTS Report revealed a haggard but healthy labor market in the last mile of the Fed\u2019s tightening cycle,\u201d Noah Yosif, chief economist at the American Staffing Association, wrote in commentary issued Wednesday. \u201cTepid momentum in hiring and layoffs suggests that employers remain reluctant to raise headcount without a substantial deceleration in borrowing costs. At the same time, employers fear a repeat of labor shortages from years past,\u00a0and many are attempting to weather the storm with their employees.\u201d


The quits rate, which measures voluntary separations as a percentage of total employment, held at 2.1%, underscoring the labor market\u2019s shift from \u201cGreat Resignation\u201d to the \u201cGreat Stay,\u201d Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter\u2019s chief economist, wrote on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cJob switchers\u2019 prospects have cooled in recent months \u2014 smaller pay bumps, less opportunity to negotiate offers, fewer signing bonuses, and less attractive jobs overall \u2014 so it\u2019s not surprising that workers are choosing to stay put when they can,\u201d Pollak said, referencing a recent survey of new hires<\/a> conducted by ZipRecruiter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While openings, hires and quits show a labor market that\u2019s on stable ground, Wednesday\u2019s JOLTS report wasn\u2019t free of red flags: Layoffs and discharges spiked in July to 1.76 million, the highest monthly level since spring of last year, when tech layoffs were surging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the leap \u2014 which was driven in part by workers shed in the leisure and hospitality industry \u2014 the layoffs rate remained within the range seen during the past year and below historical averages, BLS data shows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That aligns with other measurements of unemployment activity remaining relatively muted in recent weeks, specifically weekly jobless claims data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economists have attributed the rise of the unemployment rate to more people entering the labor market looking for work but running into lower levels of hiring. A sharp increase in layoff activity, however, could trigger an economic downturn, they\u2019ve noted.

Reprinted from \u201cCNN\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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